Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barnsley · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-2
York are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Barnsley are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLWLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Barnsley hold a 6.7-point power-rating edge (49.0 v 55.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.0% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Barnsley holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 78% BTTS chance and 80% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Barnsley
Probability
36.0%
Model confidence
36.0%
Barnsley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20