Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Xorazm are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLDL), averaging 0.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Surkhon are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Xorazm hold a 2.4-point power-rating edge (43.7 v 41.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.0% in the Super League, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 37% BTTS chance and 28% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 9 · avg 0.20/1.80
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00