Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Neftchi · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-2
Xorazm are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDDWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Neftchi are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Neftchi hold a 38.0-point power-rating edge (43.7 v 81.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 73.7% in the Super League, while Neftchi holds the strongest overall chance at 74% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 33% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Neftchi
Probability
73.7%
Model confidence
73.7%
Neftchi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60