GGOALVIO

England · Championship · 8/16/2026, 12:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Southampton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Watford are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Southampton are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Southampton hold a 13.3-point power-rating edge (48.1 v 61.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.7% in the Championship, while Southampton holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Southampton

Probability

42.7%

Model confidence

42.7%

Southampton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

WatfordWLWDL

GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
SouthamptonWWWWW

GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
WatfordSouthampton
44.2Attack61.9
55.8Defence56.5
40.6Form63.9
48.1Power61.4
1.18xG1.56
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