Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wanderers · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Wanderers are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DWDDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Progreso are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Wanderers hold a 16.4-point power-rating edge (52.4 v 36.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.4% in the Primera División, while Wanderers holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 34% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Wanderers
Probability
54.4%
Model confidence
54.4%
Wanderers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80