Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dordrecht · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Waalwijk are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Dordrecht are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLDWW), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Dordrecht hold a 35.0-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 80.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.7% in the Eerste Divisie, while Dordrecht holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Dordrecht
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
12.7%
Dordrecht has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20