Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chaves · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Vizela are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWD), averaging 0.20 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Chaves are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Chaves hold a 13.9-point power-rating edge (35.6 v 49.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.6% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Chaves holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Chaves
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Chaves has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 12 · avg 0.20/2.40
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80