GGOALVIO

Vitória de Sernache logoVitória de SernachevsSC Covilha logoSC Covilha

COMPLETED

Portugal · Liga 3 · 8/16/2026, 4:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Vitória de Sernache are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLWDD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while SC Covilha are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDDLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and SC Covilha hold a 2.1-point power-rating edge (50.0 v 52.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 34.7% in the Liga 3, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

34.7%

Model confidence

34.7%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Vitória de SernacheLLWDD

GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80

BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
SC CovilhaWDDLW

GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
Vitória de SernacheSC Covilha
50.0Attack48.4
50.0Defence59.1
50.0Form45.2
50.0Power52.1
1.15xG1.17
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