Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palmeiras · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Vitoria are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDWLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Palmeiras are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Palmeiras hold a 25.1-point power-rating edge (42.6 v 67.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 17.1% in the Serie A, while Palmeiras holds the strongest overall chance at 64% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 35% BTTS chance and 39% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Palmeiras
Probability
64.5%
Model confidence
17.1%
Palmeiras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80