Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Botafogo · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Vitoria are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Botafogo are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWDWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Botafogo hold an 8.9-point power-rating edge (42.6 v 51.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.3% in the Serie A, while Botafogo holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Botafogo
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
13.3%
Botafogo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80