VitoriavsAtletico-MG

Vitoria are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLLWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Atletico-MG are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Atletico-MG hold a 7.5-point power-rating edge (42.6 v 50.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.6% in the Serie A, while Atletico-MG holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 35% for over 2.5 goals.