Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Virtus · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Virtus are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Dila are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWWLL), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 10 passed 2.5 goals, and Virtus hold a 19.9-point power-rating edge (47.8 v 27.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.3% in the UEFA Europa Conference League, while Virtus holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Virtus
Probability
53.3%
Model confidence
53.3%
Virtus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60