Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vila Nova · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Vila Nova are 0W-4D-1L in their last 5 (DDDDL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while CRB are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Vila Nova hold a 3.2-point power-rating edge (55.2 v 51.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.8% in the Serie B, while Vila Nova holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Vila Nova
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Vila Nova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60