Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vila Nova · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Vila Nova are 0W-4D-1L in their last 5 (DDDLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Confiança are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Vila Nova hold a 10.1-point power-rating edge (48.3 v 38.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 17.4% in the Copa Do Brasil, while Vila Nova holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 36% BTTS chance and 28% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Vila Nova
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
17.4%
Vila Nova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40