Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Verdes are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 4.40 conceded, while Municipal are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 2.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Municipal hold a 58.8-point power-rating edge (6.0 v 64.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the CONCACAF Central American Cup, favouring a draw with 13.4% confidence, a 53% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
28.0%
Model confidence
13.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 22 · avg 0.80/4.40
GF 14 · GA 3 · avg 2.80/0.60