Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Venezia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Venezia are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWW), averaging 4.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Modena are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Venezia hold a 13.3-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 32.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.3% in the Coppa Italia, while Venezia holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Venezia
Probability
46.1%
Model confidence
11.3%
Venezia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 20 · GA 8 · avg 4.00/1.60
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40