Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
OKS · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
Varde are 0W-1D-2L in their last 3 (LLD), averaging 0.67 scored and 4.00 conceded, while OKS are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 8 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and OKS hold a 56.7-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 80.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 7.9% in the DBU Pokalen, while OKS holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 77% BTTS chance and 79% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
OKS
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
7.9%
OKS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.67/4.00
GF 5 · GA 14 · avg 1.00/2.80