Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vaprus · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Vaprus are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Tammeka are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Tammeka hold a 3.6-point power-rating edge (43.7 v 47.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.8% in the Meistriliiga, while Vaprus holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Vaprus
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Vaprus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60