Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paide · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Vaprus are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLWL), averaging 3.40 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Paide are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Paide hold a 12.8-point power-rating edge (43.7 v 56.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.3% in the Meistriliiga, while Paide holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Paide
Probability
47.3%
Model confidence
47.3%
Paide has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 17 · GA 10 · avg 3.40/2.00
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20