Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ararat · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Van are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DLWDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Ararat are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWWLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Ararat hold a 7.5-point power-rating edge (44.7 v 52.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.1% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Ararat holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ararat
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Ararat has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20