Utrechtvs
AZ Alkmaar
SCHEDULEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 8/15/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AZ Alkmaar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Utrecht are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while AZ Alkmaar are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (WDDDD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and AZ Alkmaar hold a 65.0-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 88.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.1% in the Eredivisie, while AZ Alkmaar holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
AZ Alkmaar
Probability
46.1%
Model confidence
12.1%
AZ Alkmaar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20