Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
15%
MediumconfidenceUTC are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDLWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while ADT are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and aDT hold a 3.1-point power-rating edge (41.3 v 44.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the Primera División, favouring a draw with 14.8% confidence, a 45% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.0%
Model confidence
14.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UTCLDLWW
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ADTLLLWL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
UTCADT
38.1Attack38.1
46.0Defence57.1
31.7Form33.3
41.3Power44.4
1.04xG1.13