Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Udinese · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Udinese are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Padova are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLW), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Udinese hold a 44.0-point power-rating edge (59.3 v 15.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.2% in the Coppa Italia, while Udinese holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Udinese
Probability
58.6%
Model confidence
10.2%
Udinese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 11 · GA 13 · avg 2.20/2.60