Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dundalk · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
UCD are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWDW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Dundalk are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Dundalk hold a 42.6-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 66.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.3% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Dundalk holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Dundalk
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
13.3%
Dundalk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40