UCDvs
Derry City
COMPLETEDIreland · FAI Cup · 8/14/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
UCD · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
UCD are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLDWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Derry City are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Derry City hold a 16.7-point power-rating edge (80.3 v 97.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.2% in the FAI Cup, while UCD holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 68% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
UCD
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
10.2%
UCD has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60