Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Uberaba · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Uberaba are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (WDLDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Caldense are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (WLDDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Uberaba hold a 29.8-point power-rating edge (64.2 v 34.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 21.5% in the Mineiro - 2, while Uberaba holds the strongest overall chance at 69% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 25% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Uberaba
Probability
68.9%
Model confidence
21.5%
Uberaba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60