Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Juventude · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Tuna Luso are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Juventude are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDLDL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Tuna Luso hold a 9.9-point power-rating edge (71.2 v 61.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.8% in the Copa Do Brasil, while Juventude holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 45% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Juventude
Probability
35.8%
Model confidence
35.8%
Juventude has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40