Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Riga · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 0-3
Tukums are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWWL), averaging 3.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Riga are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWD), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Riga hold a 45.5-point power-rating edge (38.0 v 83.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-3 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.1% in the Virsliga, while Riga holds the strongest overall chance at 82% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 76% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Riga
Probability
82.4%
Model confidence
11.1%
Riga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 7 · avg 3.20/1.40
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40