Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rīgas FS · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 0-3
Tukums are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.60 conceded, while Rīgas FS are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Rīgas FS hold a 43.3-point power-rating edge (38.0 v 81.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-3 the most likely exact scoreline at 81.2% in the Virsliga, while Rīgas FS holds the strongest overall chance at 81% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 75% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Rīgas FS
Probability
81.2%
Model confidence
81.2%
Rīgas FS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40