Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rīgas FS · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 0-3
Tukums are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DDLDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Rīgas FS are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Rīgas FS hold a 43.3-point power-rating edge (38.0 v 81.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-3 the most likely exact scoreline at 81.2% in the Virsliga, while Rīgas FS holds the strongest overall chance at 81% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 75% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Rīgas FS
Probability
81.2%
Model confidence
81.2%
Rīgas FS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40