Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mārupe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
Tukums II are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Mārupe are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLLDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Mārupe hold a 22.3-point power-rating edge (26.9 v 49.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 8.8% in the 1. Liga, while Mārupe holds the strongest overall chance at 64% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 71% BTTS chance and 78% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Mārupe
Probability
63.7%
Model confidence
8.8%
Mārupe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00