Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Trofense · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Trofense are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DLDDL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Varzim are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLDLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Trofense hold a 4.0-point power-rating edge (51.9 v 47.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 19.1% in the Liga 3, while Trofense holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 34% BTTS chance and 25% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Trofense
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
19.1%
Trofense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20