Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Treze · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Treze are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Sergipe are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDLWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Treze hold a 6.5-point power-rating edge (57.6 v 51.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.9% in the Serie D, while Treze holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 42% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Treze
Probability
46.8%
Model confidence
13.9%
Treze has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00