Treowen Starsvs
Caerphilly Athletic
SCHEDULEDWales · FAW Championship · 8/15/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Treowen Stars · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Treowen Stars are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLWLL), averaging 1.80 scored and 3.20 conceded, while Caerphilly Athletic are 0W-1D-1L in their last 2 (DL), averaging 0.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 7 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Treowen Stars hold a 26.8-point power-rating edge (53.0 v 26.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.0% in the FAW Championship, while Treowen Stars holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Treowen Stars
Probability
51.8%
Model confidence
10.0%
Treowen Stars has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 16 · avg 1.80/3.20
GF 0 · GA 3 · avg 0.00/1.50