Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Modena · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Trento are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (WDLDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Modena are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Modena hold a 41.7-point power-rating edge (29.5 v 71.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 9.9% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Modena holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Modena
Probability
53.9%
Model confidence
9.9%
Modena has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80