Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tre Fiori · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tre Fiori are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Larne are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWD), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Larne hold an 8.2-point power-rating edge (26.7 v 34.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.0% in the UEFA Champions League, while Tre Fiori holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tre Fiori
Probability
47.0%
Model confidence
47.0%
Tre Fiori has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 11 · GA 1 · avg 2.20/0.20