Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Torreense · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Torreense are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Penafiel are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLDLL), averaging 0.20 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Penafiel hold a 21.8-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 45.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 16.8% in the Segunda Liga, while Torreense holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 38% BTTS chance and 29% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Torreense
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
16.8%
Torreense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 1 · GA 10 · avg 0.20/2.00