Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tondela · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tondela are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Varzim are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLLDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Tondela hold a 31.4-point power-rating edge (59.9 v 28.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 49.1% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Tondela holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tondela
Probability
49.1%
Model confidence
49.1%
Tondela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40