Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tondela · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tondela are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Nacional are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLWLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Tondela hold a 12.2-point power-rating edge (59.9 v 47.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.6% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Tondela holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tondela
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Tondela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80