Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tondela · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tondela are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWLWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Academica are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Tondela hold a 28.6-point power-rating edge (59.9 v 31.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.7% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Tondela holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tondela
Probability
48.7%
Model confidence
48.7%
Tondela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00