Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Dallas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Toluca are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while FC Dallas are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WWDLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and FC Dallas hold a 27.2-point power-rating edge (59.3 v 86.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.4% in the Leagues Cup, while FC Dallas holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
FC Dallas
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
13.4%
FC Dallas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60