GGOALVIO

Mexico · Liga MX U21 · 7/21/2026, 3:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Toluca U21 · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0

Mediumconfidence

Toluca U21 are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while UNAM Pumas U21 are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDDLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Toluca U21 hold a 20.7-point power-rating edge (60.9 v 40.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.3% in the Liga MX U21, while Toluca U21 holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Toluca U21

Probability

48.1%

Model confidence

14.3%

Toluca U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Toluca U21DLWWL

GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
UNAM Pumas U21DDDLW

GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60

BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Toluca U21UNAM Pumas U21
55.6Attack22.2
66.7Defence66.7
55.6Form22.2
60.9Power40.2
1.35xG0.81
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