GGOALVIO

Japan · J1 League · 5/3/2026, 5:03:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Kashiwa Reysol · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Tokyo Verdy are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WWDLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Kashiwa Reysol are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Kashiwa Reysol hold a 55.2-point power-rating edge (31.3 v 86.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.3% in the J1 League, while Kashiwa Reysol holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Kashiwa Reysol

Probability

50.8%

Model confidence

12.3%

Kashiwa Reysol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Tokyo VerdyWWDLD

GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Kashiwa ReysolLLLLW

GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40

BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Tokyo VerdyKashiwa Reysol
33.3Attack83.3
33.3Defence66.7
16.7Form100.0
31.3Power86.5
1.13xG1.76
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