Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Neftchi · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Toktogul are 1W-0D-2L in their last 3 (LLW), averaging 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded, while Neftchi are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 8 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Neftchi hold a 2.3-point power-rating edge (41.7 v 44.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.1% in the Premier League, while Neftchi holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Neftchi
Probability
35.1%
Model confidence
35.1%
Neftchi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 1.33/1.67
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20