Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tirsense · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tirsense are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DDWWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.20 conceded, while Varzim are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Varzim hold a 13.3-point power-rating edge (15.3 v 28.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.0% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Tirsense holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tirsense
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
Tirsense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/0.20
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60