GGOALVIO

France · Ligue 3 · 8/14/2026, 5:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Thionville Lusitanos · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Thionville Lusitanos are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWWL), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Caen are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWWL), averaging 3.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 97.0 against 97.0. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.1% in the Ligue 3, while Thionville Lusitanos holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Thionville Lusitanos

Probability

39.9%

Model confidence

14.1%

Thionville Lusitanos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Thionville LusitanosWDWWL

GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20

BTTS 1/5O2.5 5/5
CaenWDWWL

GF 16 · GA 8 · avg 3.20/1.60

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Thionville LusitanosCaen
100.0Attack100.0
100.0Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
97.0Power97.0
1.35xG1.15
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