Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tauras · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Tauras are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Garliava are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Tauras hold a 14.3-point power-rating edge (62.8 v 48.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.5% in the 1 Lyga, while Tauras holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 42% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tauras
Probability
51.1%
Model confidence
14.5%
Tauras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80