Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tamworth · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tamworth are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DWDDL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.80 conceded, while AFC Fylde are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLDLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 45.3 against 45.6. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 9.5% in the National League, while Tamworth holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 70% BTTS chance and 70% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tamworth
Probability
47.0%
Model confidence
9.5%
Tamworth has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60