Tampa Bay Rowdiesvs
Phoenix Rising
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 5/23/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tampa Bay Rowdies · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 2-0
Tampa Bay Rowdies are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Phoenix Rising are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Tampa Bay Rowdies hold a 21.9-point power-rating edge (68.3 v 46.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 63.4% in the USL Championship, while Tampa Bay Rowdies holds the strongest overall chance at 63% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 45% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Probability
63.4%
Model confidence
63.4%
Tampa Bay Rowdies has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60