GGOALVIO

USA · USL Championship · 8/2/2026, 12:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Tampa Bay Rowdies · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Lowconfidence

Tampa Bay Rowdies are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Louisville City are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Tampa Bay Rowdies hold a 16.2-point power-rating edge (68.3 v 52.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.0% in the USL Championship, while Tampa Bay Rowdies holds the strongest overall chance at 66% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Tampa Bay Rowdies

Probability

66.2%

Model confidence

10.0%

Tampa Bay Rowdies has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Tampa Bay RowdiesWDWLW

GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Louisville CityWLWWD

GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Tampa Bay RowdiesLouisville City
63.2Attack57.9
66.7Defence43.9
71.9Form49.1
68.3Power52.2
2.40xG1.00
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